Pandora’s box, the war in Ukraine and the role of China

On 24 February, Russia began the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, starting a war to conquer all or part of the country, to annex it or turn it – along the lines of Belarus – into a State geo-politically controlled by and economically dependent on Russia.

The outcome is by no means certain. Despite the massive numbers mobilized for the invasion (estimated at between 150,000 and 200,000 men, in other words about 70% of all land forces), Ukraine is fighting hard to defend an enormous territory (the largest in Europe, over 600,000 km²), with an army of 200,000 men and 200,000 reservists. Added to these resources, are the logistic support, intelligence and military aid of the West. This support does not include direct involvement in the conflict but is nonetheless fundamental for the defense of Ukraine against the Russian advance.

G7 countries have also applied a large number of sanctions, both of a financial nature and directed against individuals and companies, and this is a second – economic – war, with the likely effect of a complete geopolitical and economic revision of globalization.

The only aim that can give sense to the invasion is a European war repositioning Russia geopolitically and economically in the Eurasian context, and this is part of the grand strategy adopted by China in response to the strategic and economic pressure of the US after 2018 and the attempt to confine its power in the South China Sea.